A Cook PVI score of D+2, for example, means that in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, the state or district performed about two points more Democratic in terms of two-party vote share than the nation did as a whole, while a score of R+4 means the state or district performed about four points more Republican. While this can be skewed by differing perceptions of the parties at different levels of government (such as Democrats being popular locally in heavily conservative areas), this is nevertheless the basic idea behind Cooks Partisan Voting Index, on which our SSP PVI is based. The boldface sentences confirm my understanding of how PVI works. these trends are going to continue and old numbers will miss the story. L. Rev. I also notice that, before then, a larger gap was less uncommonEisenhower and FDR, but also Hoover, won in landslides. The floors all tilt in a mostly uniform fashion. If each state were to vote according to PVI in a tied popular vote occurring in the 2012 Presidential election, excluding the nine electoral votes of the even-PVI state of Colorado, the Democrat would receive 263 electoral votes and the Republican 266. Copyright 2023 by Cook Political Report. Copyright 2023 by Cook Political Report. [1] [2] This chart provides a spectrum that analyzes the competitiveness or vulnerability of partisan political districts and subdivisions each cycle. . House Map - Election Results 2010 - The New York Times, http://www.electiondataservices.com/r09wTables.pdf, Meat processing & products: Long-Term Contribution Trends | OpenSecrets. 21-07, CLC on The Supreme Courts Role in the Degradation of U.S. Democracy, Maggie Haberman: Trump, Trumpism and the Threats to American Democracy, Moore v. Harper and Potential Threats to American Democracy, Fixing the Electoral Count Act to Stop Future Stolen Elections, Ive Been Way More Worried About American Democracy Than I Am Right Now, The Courts are the Only Thing Holding Back Total Election Subversion, An Arizona Court Seems to Think Voter Intimidation Isnt Voter Intimidation. So, I was thinking if we really want to go large, and contribute something to the broader blogosphere, that goes beyond a purportedly more accurate version of PVI, that really affects the larger conversation about what a district can and cant support, maybe we should try categorizing districts in terms of 20 or 25 typologies. "[1][2][3], The data in the report is compiled by POLIDATA, a political data analysis company, with assistance from National Journal and The Cook Political Report. 7, 2022, North Carolina Republicans Ask SCOTUS To Decimate Voting Rights in Every State, Slate, Feb. 25, 2022, What Democrats Need From Mitch McConnell to Make an Election Reform Deal Worth It, Slate, Jan. 4, 2022, No One is Coming to Save Us from the Dagger at the Throat of America, N.Y. Times, Jan. 7, 2022, Election Reform: Past, Present, and Future in Oxford Handbook of American Election Law (Eugene Mazo, ed., forthcoming 2023), draft available: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4218256, Identifying and Minimizing the Risk of Election Subversion and Stolen Elections in the Contemporary United States, 135 Harvard Law Review Forum 265 (2022), Research Note: Record Election Litigation Rates in the 2020 Election: An Aberration or a Sign of Things to Come?, Election Law Journal, https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/epdf/10.1089/elj.2021.0050 (2022), Optimism and Despair About a 2020 Election Meltdown and Beyond, 100 Boston University Law Review Online 298 (2020) (part of symposium on my book, Election Meltdown), Three Pathologies of American Voting Rights Illuminated by the COVID-19 Pandemic, and How to Treat and Cure Them,Election Law Journal (2020), The Democracy Index: Why Our Election System Is Failing and How to Fix Itby Heather K. Gerken, Social Media and Democracy (Cambridge Press, 2020) by Nathaniel Persily and Joshua A. Tucker, The Law of Democracy: Legal Structure of the Political Process, 6th ed. Given that the data is already entered, we could also look at trends over time. The One Group That Can Stop Elon Musk from Unbanning Trump on Twitter, Facebook and Twitter Could Let Trump Back Online. The Cook Partisan Voting Index of Congressional District 13, which includes Oakland and Berkeley, is D+40, making it the most Democratic congressional district in California and the fourth most Democratic district in the US. The least Republican-leaning states to have two Republican senators are Florida (R+3 PVI), represented by Marco Rubio and Rick Scott, and North Carolina (R+3 PVI), represented by Ted Budd and Thom Tillis. Should it be in addition to the PVI? Why Higher Interest Rates are Dangerous for the United States, Four Key Lessons from the CBO's Long-Term Budget Outlook, Interest May Cost Us a Record Amount of Money within 10 Years, Peaking Crime Rates Spur a Change in Anti-Police Attitudes. Cook observed the following challenges in its 2017 PVI summary:[6]. The Cook Partisan Voting Index, abbreviated Cook PVI, CPVI, or PVI, is a measurement of how strongly a United States congressional district or U.S. state leans toward the Democratic or Republican Party, compared to the nation as a whole, based on how that district or state voted in the previous two presidential elections. The Cook Political Report introduced the PVI in August 1997 to better gauge the competitiveness of each . Socal gal at heart 07:13, 9 March 2008 (UTC) Reply . [4], The Cook PVI is displayed as a letter, a plus sign, and a number. By the most stringent measure, the CPI was accurate in over 94% of legislative races. How Effective is COVID-19 Economic Stimulus? At D+16, Vermont is the most Democratic state, though Washington, D.C., is substantially more partisan with a PVI value of D+43.[4]. In the Senate, the most Republican-leaning state to have a Democratic senator is West Virginia (R+22 PVI), represented by Joe Manchin. The Civitas Partisan Index (CPI) is a measure of the partisan tendency of state legislative districts. Any reasons not to? DeSantis, Newsom and the Red/Blue State Divide, Jessica Taylor: 2023 Governor Races Preview. The number reflects the strength of that partisan preference in rounded percentage points. 1225 (2018). The Cook Political Reports Partisan Voting Index (PVI) has been quantifying that question for more than 20 years. Partisan Voting Index Districts of the 115th Congress The Cook Political Report Arranged by State/District. 48 Florida State University Law Review 61 (2021), Spencer Overton, Power to Regulate Social Media Companies to Prevent Voter Suppression. Professor of Law at USC Gould School of LawView posts , Cheap Speech: How Disinformation Poisons Our Politics--and How to Cure It (Yale University Press, 2022) But Hes Still a Danger. if("undefined"==typeof window.datawrapper)window.datawrapper={};window.datawrapper["DFSft"]={},window.datawrapper["DFSft"].embedDeltas={"100":464,"200":421,"300":400,"400":400,"500":400,"700":400,"800":400,"900":400,"1000":400},window.datawrapper["DFSft"].iframe=document.getElementById("datawrapper-chart-DFSft"),window.datawrapper["DFSft"].iframe.style.height=window.datawrapper["DFSft"].embedDeltas[Math.min(1e3,Math.max(100*Math.floor(window.datawrapper["DFSft"].iframe.offsetWidth/100),100))]+"px",window.addEventListener("message",function(a){if("undefined"!=typeof a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var b in a.data["datawrapper-height"])if("DFSft"==b)window.datawrapper["DFSft"].iframe.style.height=a.data["datawrapper-height"][b]+"px"}); Cook's 2017 PVI report included the following congressional district statistics following the 2016 election cycle:[6][14], Cook's 2013 PVI report included the following congressional district statistics following the 2012 election cycle:[4]. For example, we could try to average out the performance of candidates to that seat in the past, but seeing as we are trying to gauge exactly that, this would be a wolf-guarding-the-sheep situation. Ballotpedia does not curate or endorse these articles. (Cook PVI) is a service mark of Invincible Summer Media, Inc. Our subscribers have first access to individual race pages for each House, Senate and Governors race, which will include race ratings (each race is rated on a seven-point scale) and a narrative analysis pertaining to that race. In a few states, these results are aggregated by district by state and/or local election authorities. Calculating presidential results by district following elections and redistricting involves some judgment calls, and although this dataset reflects POLIDATAs best efforts, in rare cases raw vote data are subject to revision upon further post-election review. Davis L. Rev. Large portions of the U.S., particularly in the midwest and deep South skew very heavily Republican, according to the PVI. The wealthy districts around the Bay Area aren't usually government workers (unlike in NoVa, but that's another story) so they have little to no reason, at least conventional reason states, to vote for the Democrats. So in that I do disagree with those who think Swing State analysis should be based on the industry standard rather than the most accurate in the industry. (3) so primarily stick with the PVI (in charts and all), but use the SVI if it provides interesting information on write-ups and analyses. Modeled after the Cook Partisan Voting Index, the Hybrid Partisan Voting Index (hPVI) was developed for Wilkerson Public Affairs by Braedon Wilkerson in 2014. The Cook Partisan Voting Index, abbreviated Cook PVI, CPVI, or PVI, is a measurement of how strongly a United States congressional district or U.S. state leans toward the Democratic or Republican Party, compared to the nation as a whole, based on how that district or state voted in the previous two presidential elections. New Yorks 15th district, located in the Bronx, has the highest Democratic score at D+44. Franita Tolson and Edward Foley. Like with investments, past performance is no guarantee of future performance. The number of "hyper-competitive" seats (R+3 to D+3) fell from 51 to 45, our lowest count ever, but far from a total collapse. The PVI is determined by comparing each congressional district's presidential vote to the national presidential election results. A district with a 2004 Cook PVI of D+1 or D+2 district is actually a Republican district, since Bush won by just over 2% nationally. L. Rev. If certain, wed put them in the solid D or solid R bin, and if uncertain, wed still get an idea of how big the swing block is, and whether they lean D or R. Now, even if we do an abstract version of this, via polling, we (or anyone else) would still need to put in a ton of groundwork into gathering this data. & Mary L. Rev. SVI will average to 0, and PVI will not. For the 2022 dataset, that means that the 2020 result in each state district is weighted three times as heavily as the 2016 result. Cooks PVI is merely a relative value even using the old data. But it could be even better. 20-0002, New York University Law Review, Forthcoming, Justin Levitt, Failed Elections and the Legislative Selection of Electors, __ N.Y.U. Something like what Claritas does with marketing, demographics, and zip codes, except, yknow, less lame. i guess i can see the appeal for cook and maybe others in that the 00 and 04 national elections were close to 50-50, therefore you almost removed a complex variable and you can just say if they voted 60% for GOP in 00 and 04 then they are GOP +20. The Cook Partisan Voting Index measures how strongly a United States congressional district or state leans towards the Democrat or Republican Party at the presidential level compared to the nation as a whole. For example, we could ask everyone in the district who theyd vote for, generic Democrat or generic Republican, for a given position, and then ask them whether they were certain of their choice. Of these 14 districts, I see them falling into at least six different categories, each of which tells its own story thats very different in its level of openness to downticket Dems: CA-11, CA-45, FL-08, FL-24: Sunbelt districts that dont have a Democratic history because they really didnt exist until a few decades ago; theyre composed of new transplants in suburban/exurban settings. Off-year cycles are very different beasts when it comes to TO, especially in states which have their gubernatorial elections in Presidential years (and the usual problem of getting out Leap Year Dems generally). [1] The index is expressed as a letter (R for Republican, D for Democrat) followed by a plus sign and a number. We hear a lot these days about red states and blue states, but what does that really mean? More than 20 years by the most stringent measure, the Cook Political Report introduced the...., 9 March 2008 ( UTC ) Reply Twitter, Facebook and Twitter Let. 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